In any election in which the complexion of the major-party campaigns makes a minor-party run look plausible and more hopeful than usual, multiple minor-party and independent candidates will see that advantage and dilute the effect, thereby diminishing the minor-party advantage.
I wrote about this years ago, though I cannot find where it was published. Back in my Liberty days. Oh, well. The Evan McMullin gambit in this election, as in the John Anderson media-backed run in 1980, shows why the minor-party strategy is such a nonstarter. And surely this wisdom should inform Libertarian Party strategy.
The law, above, by the way, should sound very familiar to economists. It looks a lot like the Efficient Market Hypothesis, doesn’t it? Or Stigler’s Equilibrium Always position.
Yes, I know. This is a fairly obvious point, but I’ve not seen it made in the Public Choice literature I’ve read.